Brazil sugar production expected to increase almost 8%

Sugar production in the key Center-South Brazil region is expected to total 2.4 million mt in the first half of June, reflecting an increase of 7.7% on the year, an S&P Global Commodity Insights survey of 12 analysts showed June 23.

It is reported by S&P Global Platts.

During the survey, the cane crush estimate ranged from 39.4 million mt to 45 million mt. The average estimate was for a total cane crush of 42.2 million mt, a 15.6% increase on the year.

Weather in the Center-South was favorable for crushing during H1 June, with less than one day expected lost to rain and about 250-255 mills active as of June 16.

«Although there is a wide range of estimates for the H1 June cane crush, there is still broad consensus, with the expected production mix still in favor for ethanol production compared to last year, — according to S&P Global. — Additionally, H1 June production figures are expected to be higher than last year because of the heavy rainfall during H1 June 2021 in the Southeast, which had caused mills to shutter production for a few days».

The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to be 44.6%, down from 46.2% a year earlier. Brazilian producers took advantage of the recent high price of ethanol during the early stages of the harvest, but now mills are expected to start shifting more of their cane crush toward sugar production.

Recoverable sugar per ton of sugar cane, or ATR, is expected to be 133.6 kg/mt, a decrease of 3.5% on the year.

Total ethanol output from sugar cane is expected to be 1.95 billion liters, up 13.9% on the year.

Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 1.24 billion liters, according to the average of the analysts' responses to the survey. This would be an increase of 23.8% on the year. Anhydrous ethanol output in H1 June was expected to be 710 million liters, 0.1% lower on the year, according to the survey.