Brazil sugar production expected to increase almost 7%

Sugar production in the key Center-South Brazil region is expected to total 3.25 million mt in the second-half July, reflecting an increase of 6.7% on the year, an S&P Global Commodity Insights survey of 11 analysts showed Aug. 9.

It is reported by S&P Gloal Platts.

During the survey, the cane crush estimate ranged from 48.0 million mt to 49.5 million mt for H2 July. The average estimate was for a total cane crush of 48.6 million mt, a 3.6% increase on the year.

Weather in the Center-South was favorable for crushing during H2 July, with less than one day expected lost to rain and about 255-260 mills active as of Aug. 1.

«The market consensus is that crushing should exceed the same fortnight from last year and that the sugar mix should continue increasing in relation to prior fortnights, — according to Platts Analytics. — Additionally, the range of analysts' estimates for H2 July is in a very tight range».

The proportion of cane used for sugar production is expected to be 47.6%, up from 46.2% a year earlier. Brazilian producers took advantage of the recent high price of ethanol during the early stages of the harvest, but now mills are expected to start shifting more of their cane crush toward sugar production.

Recoverable sugar per ton of sugar cane, or ATR, is expected to be 147.3 kg/mt, a decrease of 0.1% on the year.

Total ethanol output from sugar cane is expected to be 2.38 billion liters, up 1.3% on the year.

Hydrous ethanol output was expected to be 1.45 billion liters, according to the average of the analysts' responses to the survey. This would be an increase of 5.8% on the year. Anhydrous ethanol output in H2 July was expected to be 931 million liters, 4.9% lower on the year, according to the survey.